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Communiqué 109

La Teoría del Caos propone que el aleteo de una mariposa en Brasil podría ocasionar un huracán en Texas . La Teoría de la Complejidad agrava el caos añadiendo efectos de tipo cuántico como podrían ser la modificación del genoma de la mariposa o las contradicciones en modelos de supercomputadoras. Ahora, los geoingenieros pretenden multiplicar la complejidad con política. El resultado es una forma de inteligencia artificial extrema.

Gaia es complicada. Desde la corrientes estratosféricas hasta los ríos submarinos —y de las emisiones y captura del plancton hasta la palmeras— la cuantificación, la cualificación y calibración de los sistemas planetarios es al menos tan difícil como lograr entender los genes y las neuronas. Pese a décadas de modelación, no estamos ni cerca de predecir cuál es el mejor día para un picnic el próximo mes o anticipar las tendencias de nuestro ADN, o localizar el lugar físico de la memoria en nuestro cerebro. Hemos aprendido, no sin cierta frustración, a mapear y manipular genomas, geografías y memorias, pero no podemos controlar las consecuencias. La distinción entre una manipulación y un modelado preciso es vital.

Communique # 109

Chaos theory proposes that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could cause a hurricane in Texas. Complexity theory compounds the chaos by adding the quantum-like effects of, for example, genome changes in the butterfly to the conflictions of supercomputer models. Now, geoengineers want to multiply the complexity with politics. The result is an extreme form of artificial intelligence.
Gaia is complicated. From stratospheric currents to undersea rivers – and from plankton to palm tree emissions and sequestrations – quantifying, qualifying and calibrating planetary systems is at least as challenging as understanding genes or neurons. Despite decades of modeling, we are no more likely to predict next month’s best picnic day than we are to anticipate the proclivities of our DNA or to trace a memory in our cranium. Frustratingly, we have learned to map and manipulate genomes, geographies and memories, but we can’t control the consequences.

...Or "193 Shades of Grey".

2012 Whizzed and then it Fizzed, but 2013 can be Better

To get 2013 off with a technological BANG, ETC staff are offering (what, for us, amounts to) a ‘light-hearted’ reflection on the year past and projections for the one already upon us.

Uppers: At the end of the year, New Scientist announced that we have reduced the under-5 child mortality rate by 60 % in the last 20　years. In the United States, government studies revealed during the year that teenage pregnancies have declined 40 % since 1990; teenage smoking (at 10.6 %) is at its lowest level since records were first kept in　1975; the number of traffic fatalities in New York　City (declining ever since 1971) are the lowest since 1910; in spite of a 50 % increase in the number of firearms, the number of US　households possessing guns is continuing to drop. And, in late October, The Economist reported that, across most industrialized countries, the annual crime rate has been dropping steadily since the mid-1990s. In 2012, studies announced that homophobia, at least in OECD states, is declining steeply – a little short of World Peace or ending hunger but still something to celebrate.

Si nous voulons survivre aux changements climatiques, nous devons adopter des politiques qui permettront aux fermiers de diversifier les variétés végétales et animales qui se retrouvent sur nos menus. Ils sont les seuls à avoir la connaissance et la patience nécessaires pour découvrir quels sont les plantes et animaux qui pourront se développer. Un changement fondamental dans les mécanismes de régulation est nécessaire.